Rapid Reaction - Recession Fears

March 10, 2025

Fears of a recession have ratcheted up notably over the last several weeks. Part of the reason is the high level of uncertainty regarding trade policy and the rapidly changing stance of the Trump administration on when and if tariffs will be implemented, and how long they may remain in effect. Immediately following the election there was some hope that trade policy wasn't going to be as front-and-center, but the recent focus on close allies and our largest trade partners has sparked increasing economic concern. 

These fears are reverberating around the economy and showing up in meaningful ways in both business and consumer survey data. Further, tariffs were mentioned at the highest rates across the S&P 500 earnings calls in the last 10 years, with some notable companies publishing worse-than-expected future guidance. Over the last few days, President Trump has made remarks that many perceive as ambivalent toward the possibility of an economic recession resulting from trade policies. The result has been substantial market volatility.

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